Energy

As our energy system is transformed in the fight against climate change, it is a challenge to balance the technical complexities and big-picture objectives with their impacts on people and communities. Policy is used to support and guide the transition, but researchers lack the right quantitative modeling tools to inform policymakers about new policy designs and their impacts on the larger system. Existing models are too computationally expensive to go beyond scenarios to produce better policy mixes that address these multiple objectives.

In this project, we aim to develop a new modeling suite to assess and optimize policy mixes related to electric vehicles and the electricity system transition. Key policy case studies include: vehicle purchase subsidies that shape EV adoption, charging infrastructure investments that shape EV driver charging behaviors, and pricing signals that shape the EV charging process. We plan to use machine learning meta models to facilitate the optimization of these policies. The goal of the project is to contribute insights to support better policies for the EV transition and reveal the trade-offs between cost, emissions, equity, and health objectives in their design.

An Advanced Modeling Framework for Assessing Policy Mixes for Net-Zero Technologies

Reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 requires accelerating the adoption of clean energy technologies. Energy models are an essential tool to address this challenge. However, most common energy models have a fundamental limitation: they optimize costs without capturing how businesses, investors, and other economic actors make decisions when new policies are introduced. 

Zero-AMPS bridges this gap through a systematic approach that combines two modeling methods. The core objective is to create a model that captures how policy mixes affect economic actors in emerging clean energy supply chains. By blending agent-based modelling (which simulates individual decisions) with energy system modelling (which represents technical constraints and system interactions), the project will assess the effects of policy on emissions, jobs, and infrastructure development. 

The project unfolds in three stages, examining dynamics across multiple scales. First, we integrate these modeling approaches at the national scale. Second, we expand to regional analysis to examine how infrastructure coordination works across borders. Finally, we model technology supply chains, competition, and trade dynamics between regions. 

The result is the Zero-AMPS framework—an Agent-based Model for Policy mix Simulation designed specifically for net-zero technologies. This tool moves beyond traditional optimization to assess how policies shape the development of clean energy systems. It captures market dynamics, investment decisions, and system coordination challenges across multiple scales in a coherent modelling framework. 

Zero-AMPS provides policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders with an advanced tool for accelerating clean energy technology adoption. By revealing how different policy combinations influence technology deployment across scales, the framework supports more nuanced and effective policy formulation for emerging low-emission technologies. Funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation, Zero-AMPS supports one Senior Researcher and one PhD student.

A strategic partnership between Everllence, Volkswagen, and ETH Zürich, the AMBER project uses state-of-the-art methods to improve modeling for the European energy system. Our work in the AMBER project focuses on the business case for new technologies including mega-scale heat pumps and commercial electric vehicles. Under which conditions will these technologies see widespread deployment? Within ETH Zürich, AMBER is a collaboration between SusTec, EPSE, PSL, the Energy Science Center, and the ETH AI Center. 

Hydrogen Pathways: Domestic Policies and International Strategies for Switzerland's Energy Future

HYPATH explores how hydrogen can help Switzerland achieve a secure, net-zero energy system. Hydrogen can be used for many applications, from seasonal energy storage to low-carbon fuels for industry—but its future depends on which pathways develop and at what cost. 

This project, in collaboration with EPFL, compares domestic hydrogen production with imports to understand when each option is more promising. We use rigorous techno-economic modeling to quantify costs, infrastructure needs, and sensitivity to changing conditions like demand, technology prices, and regulation. By stress-testing these pathways under different scenarios, we identify which strategies remain viable as the future unfolds. 

HYPATH also examines how Swiss companies can participate in future international hydrogen markets, considering system interactions across multiple scales—from domestic supply to cross-border infrastructure. We assess how trade affects costs, supply security, and exposure to geopolitical risks. Rather than treating uncertainty as a problem, we make it central to our analysis—identifying where decisions have lasting impact and where flexibility matters most. 

The project delivers clear insights into the economic and strategic implications of hydrogen pathways for Switzerland. By systematically mapping costs, risks, and opportunities across domestic and international options, HYPATH contributes to energy transition research and supports long-term planning decisions. Funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy within the Energy, Economy, and Society program, HYPATH supports one PhD student.

The Coalition for Green Energy and Storage (CGES) is an initiative led by ETH Zurich and EPFL that aims to provide sustainable solutions for Switzerland’s climate and energy crises. To achieve it, CGES will support the rapid development and launch of “catapults”: large-scale demonstrators at the megawatt scale of innovative ways to use existing technologies and demonstrators of promising emerging technologies that could scale up to commercial scale within a few years.
CGES involves dozens of industry and philanthropy partners, researchers from all federal research institutes, including PSI and Empa, and cantonal and local governments. SusTec co-leads the Catapult Assessment Work Stream (CAWS), which develops a technology assessment framework and applies it to catapult candidates to ensure CGES projects contribute to the Swiss energy transition and industry.

CGES’s initial focus includes Power-to-X technologies, i.e., using electricity to produce carbon-neutral fuels like renewable hydrogen and synthetic methane; carbon capture, utilization and storage technologies; and energy storage technologies. The CGES initiative was launched on June 8th, 2023.

Contact Persons:

This SNSF- funded project aims to tackle existing challenges of the Swiss energy transition towards net-zero emissions by coordinating efforts between policy and technology domains. Existing approaches to policy design and energy system modeling often lack integration, hindering effective solutions. This project addresses this gap, aiming to develop a method that integrates policy and techno-economic aspects for optimal co-design of policy mixes and energy systems. This involves creating a quantitative framework with two modules: the "Policy Mix Designer" for policymaker perspective and the "Energy System Planner" for techno-economic modeling. By simultaneously optimizing decisions from both perspectives, the framework facilitates the co-design of optimal policy mixes and energy systems. Through case studies focusing on decentralized multi-energy systems (D-MES) and the Swiss electricity system, the project aims to provide evidence-based insights for policymakers and energy developers to support the Swiss energy transition.
More information on the project can be found external page here.

PATHways to an Efficient Future Energy System through Flexibility aND SectoR Coupling (PATHFNDR), supported by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, aims to identify feasible transition paths for integrating renewable energies in Switzerland. The PATHFNDR project focuses on flexibility and sector coupling in the Swiss energy system. By flexibility, we mean the management of fluctuations in energy demand and supply over different time scales. By sector coupling, we mean the connection between different energy supplies and demands within and between sectors.

SusTec is involved in three work packages: Work package 5 focuses on real pilot projects for which SusTec conducts a stakeholder analysis for a local thermal grid. SusTec leads work package 6, in which we focus on transition pathways and disruptions, technological innovations in the value chains, and new business opportunities at the firm level. Work package 7 focuses on policy measures to promote sector coupling and flexibility technologies and their deployment. You can find more details in the Download PATHNDR website.

Publications:

• Thimet, P.J., & Mavromatidis, G. (2023). What-where-when: Investigating the role of storage for the German electricity system transition. Applied Energy, 351, 121764. Download https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121764
• Toetzke, M., Probst, B. & Feuerriegel, S. (2023). Leveraging Large Language Models to Monitor Climate Technology Innovation. Environ. Res. Lett. in press. Download https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf233
   

Contact Person:

The PACE REFITS (Policies for accelerating renewable and efficient building & district retrofits) project, funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, addresses the challenge of retrofitting existing buildings with renewable and energy-efficient technologies. The project focuses on large-scale investors (LSIs), analyzing their motivations and barriers regarding investments in retrofitting technologies. By examining LSIs' decision-making processes, the research aims to identify regulatory conditions supporting such investments at the building and district levels. The project employs a mixed-method approach, combining qualitative methods such as expert interviews and policy scenario development with quantitative energy system modeling techniques. The project is conducted in collaboration with the Empa Urban Energy System Lab.

Publications:
• Petkov, I., Knoeri, C., & Hoffmann, V. H. (2021). The interplay of policy and energy retrofit decision-making for real estate decarbonization. Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability, 1(3), 35006. Download https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ac3321
• Petkov, I., Mavromatidis, G., Knoeri, C., Allan, J., & Hoffmann, V. H. (2022). MANGOret: An optimization framework for the long-term investment planning of building multi-energy system and envelope retrofits. Applied Energy, 314. Download https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118901
• Mavromatidis, G., & Petkov, I. (2021). MANGO: A novel optimization model for the long-term, multistage planning of decentralized multi-energy systems. Applied Energy, 288, 116585. Download https://doi.org/10.1016/J.APENERGY.2021.116585
• Lerbinger, A., Petkov, I., Mavromatidis, G., & Knoeri, C. (2023). Optimal decarbonization strategies for existing districts considering energy systems and retrofits. Applied Energy, 352, 121863. Download https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121863
• Petkov, I., Lerbinger, A., Mavromatidis, G., Knoeri, C., & Hoffmann, V. H. (2023). Decarbonizing real estate portfolios considering optimal retrofit investment and policy conditions to 2050. IScience, 26 (5), 106619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106619