Understanding the Decline of Technologies to Accelerate Sustainability Transitions
Our new study, published in Research Policy, introduces the concept of "decline functions" for analyzing how technology innovation systems decline. It illustrates its usefulness by investigating the decline of four energy technologies: incandescent light bulbs, oil-based heating, nuclear power, and ICE cars.
Researchers often focus on new and emerging systems, but understanding how established technologies decline is just as critical for sustainability transitions. However, a systematic analysis of the processes driving the decline of established technologies is lacking.
Our recent study published in Research Policy by researchers Nuno Bento, Alejandro Nuñez-Jimenez, and Noah Kittner addresses this knowledge gap by introducing the concept of "decline functions" within Technological Innovation Systems (TIS).
The study identifies four key decline functions: delegitimation, guidance toward exit, market decline, and resource demobilization. These processes contribute to the dismantling of established technological innovation systems, helping to accelerate the adoption of more sustainable alternatives.
The researchers apply their framework to four energy technologies—incandescent light bulbs, oil-based heating, nuclear power, and internal combustion engine cars—demonstrating how the decline functions interact and reinforce each other over time.
The findings provide a starting point for policymakers looking to phase out unsustainable technologies more effectively. By strengthening these decline functions, governments and industry leaders can facilitate the necessary transition away from environmentally harmful technologies.
For more details, read the full study in Research Policy:
- Bento, N., Nuñez-Jimenez, A. and Kittner, N., 2025. Decline processes in technological innovation systems: lessons from energy technologies. Research Policy, 54(3), p.105174. Download https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2025.105174