Guest Lecture with Professor James Mahoney on "The Logic of Critical Event Analysis”

Abstract 

In “The Logic of Critical Event Analysis”, Prof. Mahoney discusses a framework for the analysis of critical events in case study research. To do so, he introduces a regularity theory of token causation that employs possible world semantics. A critical event is defined as a contingent event that is causally important for an outcome of interest. By drawing on logic and set theory to define the concepts of event, contingency, and causal importance, he clarifies the relationship between causally important events and contingent events, showing why it is appropriate to build contingency into the definition of a critical event. During the lecture, he considers the ways in which critical event analysis differs from alternative modes of case study explanation, including gradualist modes of explanation. Substantive examples from comparative and international studies are used to illustrate the framework.